Aston Villa vs Manchester United Preview

Much has been said about it being too early to be out of the title race in November, mostly in relation to Arsenal. I argue that while mathematically that may be true, if you look at the recent history of points required to win the PL and points gaps that have been bridged, there are positions you can find yourself in that suggest it is very unlikely you can overcome the deficit, even if still only in November.

I suggested two weeks ago that the Man Utd game was a must win for Arsenal if they were to stay in the race and they duly delivered, only to put themselves out of contention with a loss at home to Villa last week.

The stats I used were the following (now updated for the Villa game): With 16 points dropped in their first 13 games, and assuming that you need a minimum of 86 points to win the title, Arsenal can only afford to drop 12 points in their remaining 25 games to have any realistic hope of lifting the title.

That would be 20 wins, 3 draws and 2 defeats. Based on their form so far this season you would have to say that’s too big an ask. But enough about Arsenal, what of this weekend? With Chelsea at home to Newcastle and Liverpool hosting Fulham you would have to expect that the top two will record maximum points, all of which means that the Utd/Villa game is a huge fixture, particularly for Utd.

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